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09/28/2011

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Very well articulated Tom, thank you.

There is no doubt that widespread farm improvements will be necessary not only for bay health, but for the health of our local rivers like the Shenandoah River.

Jeff Kelble
Shenandoah Riverkeeper

Thanks, Jeff! You are absolutely right, and I appreciate the kind words.

Finally, something we can all agree on! Widespread improvements on farms are needed to improve the health of the Chesapeake Bay. That is where the agreement ends. Someone recently said that the Chesapeake Bay is dying the death of a thousand cuts. What that person didn’t tell you is that autopsy will show that the cause of death is failure to treat coronary artery disease and high blood pressure. (Legacy sediments and storm water runoff).
I hate computer models, whether it is a weather model, or the pollution model used by the CBP or by USDA. These models are tools that supposedly simulate reality. In reality they often do not properly simulate the real word situations. Now we are relying on them to help clean up the Chesapeake. They are in many ways like political surveys. Depending on how a question is asked, a result can be significantly skewed depending on the desired outcome. I have no idea how the Chesapeake bay computer model works, and have to a certain extent been denied the opportunity to check it out (Rich Eskin of MDE said “don’t question the data”, at a WIP I meeting I attended). I guess I’m just not smart enough to understand that complex model. Only a limited number of academics and its creators are familiar with its design. It has passed muster with independent reviewers and has been peer reviewed.
Having all of these credentials doesn’t make the model useful in dictating pollution reduction strategies. As it is often stated, a model is only as accurate as information used in its input deck. I have repeatedly questioned the geographic scale used for land use land cover data. No one has ever answered my question as to how features that can only be mapped at a smaller scale can be accounted for in the model. I’ve also questions how the nutrient load allocations and nutrient reduction efficiencies have dramatically changed from model 5.2 to model 5.3.2. I’m not going to expand on my past diatribes as to the flaws I’ve already pointed out.
The most critical flaw I’ve found in the Bay Model is how it can’t be applied to real word solutions to Bay pollution. This tool has limited use outside of model world. To make my point I’ve created a homework problem for you Tom. Go to the MDE website that shows the final load allocations by county. The link at the end of this post is provided for your conveyance. Click on the Charles County Link and find the page that has only the Federal load for nitrogen. Each pollution source is singled out, such as agriculture, septics, urban and so on. You will notice that there is an agricultural load of 2,389 lbs of nitrogen attributed to federal properties in Charles County. I’ve been to most federal properties in Charles County and I haven’t seen any farm land. I inventoried all federal properties in Charles County from several sources and found no actively farmed land. I decided to make some calls to local agricultural officials to find out where these farms on federal lands are located. I’ve talked with county, state and federal agricultural offices in Charles County and none of them could locate these farms. I then talked with an environmental employee at the navy base in Indian Head and he said there is no agricultural land on any federal properties in Charles County, except for “maybe 10 or 15 acres of wildlife food plots”. So I conclude that the model output that shows an agricultural load on those properties is bogus. Poor analysis of the land use land cover data or improper scale of the data layer is likely to blame for the false model output. What do you conclude Tom? Can you find these phantom farms?
Those of you who continue to advocate the use of this model for Bay restoration be warned. The model analysis is dubious at best. There are provable errors in the output information. Maybe if MDE or EPA would actually attend some of these local meetings they would see how impractical the process has become. Model world is model world, but reality bites. I’ll continue to test the accuracy of model outputs with observations along with basic math. You’ve gone all in with your chips and you have a weak hand to play.

http://www.mde.state.md.us/programs/Water/TMDL/TMDLImplementation/Pages/MD_WIP_Phase_II_Target_load_summaries.aspx

Thanks, Elevation.

I am not a scientist or a mathmetician, and so I personally have no qualifications to judge the computer models you discuss.

However, I do know that back on November 8, 2010, Dr. Donald Boesch, President of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science; Dr. John Wells, Director of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science; and Dr. Denise Wardrop, Senior Scientist at Penn State University jointly wrote a letter to EPA testifying that the scientific models used to create the Bay TMDL are “state of the art” and both “useful and adequate."

I trust that these experts know what they are talking about.

Great work Tom. It's interesting that many family farmers are willing partners with Riverkeepers and other conservationists while Big Ag is fighting tooth and nail to avoid serious regulation.

Keep up the great writing.

Drew Koslow
Choptank Riverkeeper

Yes, finally something we can agree on. Ag can do a better job....and needs to.

Pat Kelly in Centreville

Trade secret is that AG has a sweet deal for taxpayers and the federal government today.

Wow,
It appears you riverkeeper guys have each other’s back. Thanks for your reply Tom. It would really be nice if you and some of those who responded to this post would attend some of these agriculture work groups and county work groups for the WIP II. I think it would be a huge eye opener as to how difficult this process has become. Please remember that the objective of this process is to clean up the Chesapeake Bay. If you would attend one of these meetings you would see how faulty this model is when applied to the county scale. I talked with government official who helps coordinate the agriculture workgroups and they said officials from MDE have only attended one workgroup meeting. I think attendance by the CBF and the EPA has also been lacking (or completely absent). The presence of these agencies at the table would be very helpful at the local level when the county governments are struggling with the deficiencies in the data. Tom, the riverkeepers, and the others who responded to this post; practice what you preach and get involved in the process. Believe me when I say that MDE, EPA and the riverkeepers have a more constructive role to play than just advocating regulation and blindly following what others proclaim as gospel (ever hear the saying, don’t believe anything you hear and only half of what you see?). Beware false prophets on both sides of this issue. You are well informed of the pollution that poisons the bay but you are completely ignorant of the solutions that are needed to fix the problem. The use of this model will at best just partially improve water quality in the bay, not meet tmdl. Please critique the issues I address in my last post and dispute what I have said based on your experience participating in this process. Don’t base your defense of this process on what others have said, get involved!
Thanks

I have long been known, and reflects the long standing commitment to the modernization of waste water treatment plants and clean up local waterways.

What a technology, what a technology!! Some one has to motivate the farmers to adopt such type of technologies for better results..Thank you.

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